Who We Believe Will Be on the 25-Man Roster Come August… But Isn’t Now

Travis d’Arnaud: rotator cuff inflammation. Lucas Duda: lower back stress fracture. David Wright: frogs, boils, locusts, darkness for three days. Not only are the Mets down three position players, they’re missing arguably their three most important ones. After all, Juan Lagares is a rather studly fourth outfielder. But the team’s infield depth was such a weakness entering 2016 that Wilmer Flores was the primary reserve at positions three through six on your scorecard. Backup catcher is a similar wasteland. Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera have respective career lines of .213/.286/.289 and .211/.260/.332. Ty Kelly, Eric Campbell and James Loney are not the answers to the Mets’ roster woes. Who will be? Glad you asked. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

Danny Valencia

This is very WFAN caller-like for me to say, but the fact is that David Wright is facing a lengthy absence for his latest malady, a herniated disk in his neck. There’s hope he’ll return before the end of the season, but given the lingering uncertainty over his health and general career arc, the Mets should plan for the worst-case scenario and not the best. With that in mind, I can see the Mets making a play for Athletics third baseman Danny Valencia. The 31-year-old quietly ranks 11th in the majors with a 142 wRC+ in 523 plate appearances dating back to the start of last season. By the way, Yoenis Cespedes has a 140 wRC+ in that time. Not bad for a guy who was designated for assignment last August.

While we’ve mostly known Valencia as a lefty-masher during his career, he has produced an .852 OPS against right-handers since the start of 2015, compared to a .951 OPS against southpaws. In other words, he’s holding his own as a regular these days. The price tag isn’t going to be cheap, as Valencia is under team control for 2017, but the Athletics have prospect Matt Chapman who isn’t far off from the majors and there’s a natural relationship between the two clubs’ front offices. This feels like a possibility with some legs. – D.J. Short (@djshort)

Sean Gilmartin

Sean Gilmartin was a perfect Rule 5 pickup last year, throwing nearly 60 innings to the tune of a 2.67 ERA, with opponents managing just a .235 TAv against. This year, he was a Spring Training victim due to a preponderance of lefties as well as Logan Verrett having better established a reputation as a swing man. Things are not looking as good for Verrett this season — too many hits, too many walks, minimal strike outs — but even if Verrett holds onto his sixth-starter spot, bullpens are fluky and some fresh blood will inevitably be needed. Gilmartin is currently looking solid in AAA, allowing a .253 TAv as a starter in one of the most extreme hitter’s parks in affiliated ball. With a history of success in the big leagues and the ability to pitch in relief or as a starter, it’s only a matter of time before what’s happening in Vegas doesn’t stay in Vegas, and Sean, Gil, and Martin return to the mound in Flushing. — Maggie Wiggin (@maggie162)

Brandon Nimmo

Sure, it seems like the Mets are missing infielders more than outfielders, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Brandon Nimmo is with the big club come August. I think that after the trade deadline comes and goes, Alejandro De Aza will be long gone. The Mets’ current fifth outfielder hits left-handed and can pitch in at any outfield position if necessary. But Brandon Nimmo can do that too — only at a fraction of the cost.

Nimmo started slowly this year, but he’s put up decent numbers in Triple-A between this year and last. In fact, he’s posted identical .284 True Average marks in each season he’s played in Las Vegas. Even for the PCL, Nimmo’s been hitting alright, leveraging a remarkable ability to walk but never engaging the power he promised. He’s probably only a platoon option today. But Nimmo is probably a better defensive outfielder than De Aza. He would make a reasonable replacement if the Mets move their current backup-to-the-backups for another, more-needed piece. The 23-year-old is still young and untested, but he’d be fine to stash at the back of the bench. — Bryan Grosnick (@bgrosnick)

Zack Wheeler

Last July 29, the Mets nearly traded Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler to Milwaukee for then-Brewer Carlos Gomez. Two days after tearing up on the field, Flores walked off against the Nationals while Yoenis Cespedes contacted his travel agent. Although Flores has been putrid this season, his 0.1 WARP exceeds the execrable -0.7 WARP produced by Gomez for the Astros. As a former Padres non-roster Spring Training invitee is known to say, unanswered prayers can be a great gift.  Thus, not only do the Mets now possess the third-best hitting centerfielder in baseball (behind Mike Trout and Marcell Ozuna), their 26-year-old former top pitching prospect is due back shortly after the All-Star break.

Wheeler’s 2014 season (the last one he pitched before undergoing Tommy John surgery) was exactly the progression the Mets were hoping for: 32 starts, 187 strikeouts in 185 innings, and a 3.54 ERA that nearly matched his 3.52 FIP. With Matt Harvey apparently fixed, and the rest of the starting staff overcoming the injured, sputtering offense, Wheeler might return in the bullpen, maybe in a long-relief role, potentially as a Flushing facsimile of Dellin Betances. Either way, Sandy Alderson’s best move as a Met might well be the one he didn’t make. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)

T.J. Rivera

Saturday versus the Marlins, the fish had the bases loaded and one out. Pitcher Justin Nicolino hit the ball right to Wilmer Flores, who proceeded to throw the ball home to an unsuspecting Kevin Plawecki, resulting in no outs and a run scored. Both players suffered from lapses of judgment on the play, but the poor fielding was nothing new for Flores. Sadly slashing .190/.271/.302 going into Saturday’s game, Flores’ bat hasn’t made up for his -0.6 FRAA. With David Wright out, the Mets and their fifth-lowest-scoring offense need a pick-me-up at third base. This is where T.J. Rivera comes in.

Rivera isn’t going to improve upon Flores’s defense, but his bat is worth examining. He’s hit well at each minor league stage, currently putting up a .370/.406/.540 line at AAA Las Vegas. His 50th-percentile PECOTA forecast indicates he may be a shade better than Flores, only Flores hasn’t lived up to his projection yet. So most likely, Rivera can hit the way Flores should be. At best, he contributes a spark to an offense in desperate need of igniting. — Brian Duricy (@briansusername_)

Chris Carter

With Lucas Duda out of commission for what could very well end up being the entire season, the Mets will need a better solution at first base than James Loney if they hope to return to the World Series. Friday night’s homer notwithstanding, Loney simply doesn’t pack the punch this lineup needs. They could certainly find power in Chris Carter.

The big righty has averaged 30 homers per year since the start of 2013 with the Astros, and he is off to a hot start in Milwaukee. His .278 True Average is right around his career norm, and he already has 14 dingers in just 53 games. Carter’s downside is obvious, as he is entirely a Three True Outcomes player. Nor is he considered a good defender at first. On the bright side, the adept Loney could hang around as a late-game replacement and pinch-hitter.

The Mets need some pop. Chris Carter has it. The truth is out there. — Andrew Mearns (@MearnsPSA)

Todd Frazier

So the Mets need a replacement for David Wright — again. After deciding not to roster a playable reserve major league corner infielder despite knowledge of Wright’s chronic back problems, the Mets have already had to conjure up James Loney to fill in for Lucas Duda. Replacing Wright will not be so easy. Assuming the White Sox continue to fall back to earth just a little more, a familiar name to Met trade wishlists could become available once again: Todd Frazier.

Even leaving his New Jersey connections aside, Frazier is a perfect fit. He’s a good third baseman and an excellent source of right-handed power. In addition to third, he has played a good bit of first, as recently as 2014, just in case Wright’s injuries eventually becomes less of a concern than Duda’s. Only 30, Frazier makes $8.25 million in 2016 and is arbitration-eligible in 2017, so he’s more than a a rental, and Jon Heyman reported Frazier was open to extending with Cincinnati before being traded last winter. The White Sox will likely demand a package similar to what they gave up to get Frazier, so expect recent first-round picks like Dom Smith and Gavin Cecchini to be on the table, and they might even demand top prospect Amed Rosario. But that’s the price of not having Daniel Murphy around anymore. — Jarrett Seidler (@jaseidler)

Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports