Three weeks from today, San Diego will host the 87th All-Star Game, and the Mets are already locked into a prominent. For the first time in 15 years, their manager will be at the helm of the National League squad. Terry Collins will play an important role in determining which players get selected for the honor, and even though the Mets have a couple near-locks for the festivities, there could be more names coming. After all, the NL roster had 38 All-Stars last year.
There are still many more games between now and Sunday July 10, when the rosters will essentially be locked. So which Mets have the best chances to be at Petco Park on July 12?
All but Certain
Yoenis Cespedes
As of the last balloting update on June 15, Cespedes had the third-most votes among all NL outfielders with a strong 400,000 vote lead on Jason Heyward. He is absolutely deserving of the honor too, as he is hitting .280/.352/.564 with 17 homers and a .334 True Average (TAv), which is exactly the same figure he had in the second half last year. The big question is whether or not he’ll try to win back his Home Run Derby crown from Todd Frazier.
Noah Syndergaard
A cumulative list of major-league pitchers with a better FIP than Thor: Clayton Kershaw. End. Yes, the flamethrower seems to have already punched his ticket to Collins’ pitching staff. He currently has a 1.91 ERA, a 1.70 FIP, a 2.40 Deserved Run Average (DRA), and a startling 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Although Kershaw or Jake Arrieta will probably start, the mere idea of Syndergaard’s fastball in short relief probably sends shivers down the spines of AL batters.
Decent Odds
Jeurys Familia
The fact that Collins is managing the team will certainly help here, as All-Star managers often seem to jump at the opportunity to bring their closers, even if they are merely solid. Familia is currently tied with the Marlins’ A.J. Ramos for the major league lead with 22 saves. Obviously that should not the be-all, end-all stat for relievers, but when your own skipper runs the NL squad, it is a considerable point in your favor. His 4.16 DRA is not the shiniest, but his 2.16 FIP is sixth among NL relievers. As long as he keeps his spot near the top of the saves leaderboard, Familia will probably be an All-Star after narrowly missing last year.
Neil Walker
Bruce Bochy ended up with three second basemen on the 2015 NL All-Star team, so with old friend Daniel Murphy mashing his way toward an obvious spot alongside runaway fan vote leader Ben Zobrist, there should be a spot for one more second baseman. So why not Walker? Despite his June slump, he still leads all NL second basemen in homers with 14, and his .294 TAv is better than contenders D.J. LeMahieu, Joe Panik, and Chase Utley. It is no guarantee that Collins will take three second basemen, but if he does, he would be hard-pressed to find a third one better than Walker (unless his swoon continues).
Might Need Some Help
Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom
In many years, it wouldn’t be too difficult to envision Matz or deGrom cracking the NL pitching staff. They have been quite good and again, their own manager gets to play a role in the selection. Unfortunately for them, the NL starting pitching crop is absolutely loaded in 2016. Seven names alone seem to be near-locks already based on their various statistical dominance: Kershaw, Arrieta, Syndergaard, Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg, and Jose Fernandez.
That doesn’t leave a lot of room for other pitchers, particularly since no relievers were mentioned. Last year, Bochy took 15 pitchers total and five of them were relievers. Also remember that some of those were injury replacements or pre-All-Star Break Sunday starter subs. So if Collins follows similar parameters to Bochy, that only leaves about three possible spots for other starters. Jon Lester has a far lower ERA than Matz or deGrom (2.74 and 2.96, respectively). Zack Greinke has the name recognition and 10 wins, too. It’s a tight fit.
It’s still possible that Matz or deGrom makes the team, but they will need to have an impressive final few weeks. Even then, it might not be enough depending on how many teammates are selected for the team. They have also both started a couple fewer games than most of the leading names, too. Matz and deGrom are both very talented starters though, so while Mets fans should keep their fingers crossed, they should at least put in a good bid. Hopefully they make it a tough choice for Collins and their fellow players.
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