Mets fans have been hearing Wilmer Flores’ name for a time that feels like forever. The long-time Met signed with the team out of Venezuela, on his 16th birthday in August 2007 and was, almost instantly, subjected to copious amounts of hype–even being compared to Miguel Cabrera. This is a guy who by the age of 17 was deemed to be on the fast track to the majors. After a couple of down years in the minors he broke out for the second time in 2012; hitting .311/.361/.494 after being moved up to Double-A.
Flores was promoted to the Major Leagues in 2013 amid reports of underappreciated offensive potential. There were major questions concerning his glove but, for the most part, no one questioned the bat–in Metland there was a general feeling that if Wilmer could stick at a position he would undoubtedly mash. A couple of years ago some fans even suggested a David Wright departure via free agency would be fine as it would open up third base for Flores. Today, with Wright incapacitated and the offense a question mark, no seems to be happy with Wilmer Flores as the starting third baseman. How did we get to this point?
The short answer is this: Flores just hasn’t hit enough. Since arriving in the majors Flores has slashed .253/.290/.387 and never produced a season in which he was solidly above-average in terms of offense. After his disastrous major league showing in 2013, his TAv values of .249 (in 2014) and .262 (in 2015) were underwhelming when compared to the promise he once showed. His 2016 season seems to be more of the same as he is currently sitting on a .250/.308/.391 slash line. Wilmer Flores has, thus far, been a decent role player, but not the offensive force some predicted he may become. However, even though his offensive ceiling may be lower than we once imagined, I think there are a few reasons to believe we have not seen the best of Wilmer Flores just yet.
The first thing to remember is that Wilmer Flores is still only 24 years old, younger than Diamondbacks star third baseman Jake Lamb. That’s encouraging. Flores came up really young and, most critically, never received consistent playing time since that point. There’s a chance that Flores still has some developmental strides he could make. Having said that, we can’t just cross our fingers and hope based on age. We’ll need some actual signs that improvement is coming. Luckily, there are a few legitimate changes that Flores has made this season that could bode well for his future.
Prior to this season Flores’ Z-Swing rate hovered around 66 percent. This year it is sitting at about 72 percent. His O-Swing rate now sits under 28 percent, more than two percentage points below his previous career low set in 2015. The important thing: he is swinging at fewer balls, and far more strikes. Unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero, that’s basically the best thing a hitter can do. While Flores hasn’t yet seen this selectivity translate to greatly improved quality of contact yet–he’s only running a .141 ISO–it makes sense that these small improvements could raise his overall production. Making better decisions as to when to swing is half the battle.
Flores’ batting approach has also paid off in another important way; his walk rate. Wilmer, now with 13 walks in only 53 games, is only six walks away from matching his total from last season. In fact, Flores’ current 7.6 percent walk rate is higher than his rate during any stint he has had at any level of professional ball. Obviously walking isn’t Wilmer’s strong suit, but it is starting to look like his strides in plate discipline are making a real difference. If he can maintain some of these gains he has made, then that puts less pressure on his batted ball success to carry his offensive production.
It is these small improvements in plate discipline, combined with his age and increasing role, that lead me to believe Flores might still be improving, rather than a finished product. That being said, he’ll still require more time to bear these out, and it would help to see a couple of data points that show improved overall production. It may be anecdotal, but Flores has hit two multi-homer games in his last four, including his performance last night against Miami. Before the last four games, he had only had two multi-homer games in his career.
Despite the flashes of brilliance and the incremental improvements, the team has consistently looked to upgrade over Flores thus far. The Mets have discussed brining in external options to man third base, there has been talk about moving Neil Walker to third, and of course Jose Reyes is coming for his job. However, the Mets might have their answer to the third base conundrum already in place–and he’s only been here for nine years. It looks like Flores, finally, might be breaking out at just the right time.
Photo Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
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