Reviewing the Opening Day Roster

Barring any last-minute disasters, 24 of the 25 Opening Day roster spots have been decided for your 2017 New York Mets. There’s still one single open question–we’ll get two the two pitchers duking it out later on–but most everything seems set in stone for Day One. Feel like reviewing the roster containing the first New York Mets of the season? Good, let’s get into it.

Starting Position Players

• Travis d’Arnaud – C
• Lucas Duda – 1B
• Neil Walker – 2B
• Asdrubal Cabrera – SS
• Jose Reyes – 3B
• Jay Bruce – RF
• Curtis Granderson – CF
• Yoenis Cespedes – LF

Nothing here jumps out as a surprise. We miss you, Captain, but no one expected David Wright to open the season as the team’s third baseman; the infield is precisely how I imagined it. Cabrera, Walker, and Duda are currently upright and functional, so they are definite starters. As catcher, I’ve marked d’Arnaud as the starter here–even though he won’t be catching Noah Syndergaard on Opening Day–since I still imagine he’ll get a slightly higher share of the plate appearances behind the dish so long as he remains healthy. (You already know how I feel about TdA’s potential performance in 2017, so I hope he gets every opportunity in the first two months of the season.)

The outfield is a talented, veteran mess. Cespedes is the everyday left fielder, full stop. No problem there. But with Juan Lagares opening the season on the DL, Granderson will start every game in center for the foreseeable future. Not only does this team not have a viable backup center fielder behind him, he’s not much of a viable center fielder to begin with. Granderson is a good egg and a fine bat–perhaps still the team’s best bet as leadoff hitter–but his range and arm in the outfield isn’t ideal. When combined with Bruce and Cespedes, there’s an argument that this is the worst defensive outfield in all of baseball. (Though the Athletics have an argument.)

And I’m not trying to play the devil’s advocate here, but I do think that–given the mistakes the front office has made in designing the roster–there’s a decent argument that Bruce should start in right field regularly over Michael Conforto. Yes, Conforto is likely the team’s second- or third-best player. But starting him over Bruce may create a big schism in the clubhouse, and the Mets need to find some way to manage egos and showcase Bruce so they can perhaps move someone later on in the season. If the Mets can sit each of Duda, Bruce, and Cespedes once per week, that will give Conforto three starts per week … enough to “get him going” and prove that he’s a high-end offensive threat. If Terry Collins is willing to give him at least that much playing time–no sure thing!–plus defensive and late-game replacement time for Cespedes and Bruce, that could be enough plate appearances to balance his development, the team’s egos, and winning … at least until the next injury crops up. And by June or July, Conforto must be getting five starts a week.

Bench

• Rene Rivera – C
• Wilmer Flores – IF
• T.J. Rivera – IF
• Michael Conforto – OF
• Ty Kelly – OF/IF

Rene Rivera and Flores are no-brainers: one is the prototypical defense-first backup catcher slightly miscast in more regular duty, while the other is an impactful right-handed bat who can cover all four infield positions without embarrassing himself. Honestly, between Flores and Conforto–who I’ve covered plenty already above–the Mets could at least contend for the not-at-all-coveted title of “best fifth-infielder / fourth-outfielder combo in baseball.” (Sorry, Javy Baez and Albert Almora!)

T.J. Rivera and Kelly are a different pair of animals, as both of them are likely role 40-45 players who likely don’t have the highest ceilings of anyone who could make the team; I’d argue that Gavin Cecchini and Brandon Nimmo are better major-league players right now. However, Rivera is a contact machine and another right-handed bat on a team that needs them, so he’s basically crack cocaine to Terry Collins. (Spoiler alert, he’s not likely to run back his 2016 big-league performance.) As a switch-hitter and play-everywhere utility guy, Kelly can do everything … but not all that well. He’s not a plus defender and he’s certainly not a plus hitter, so his best role is to wait around as an emergency plug-in and get precious few opportunities. He’ll probably leave the team when Lagares is ready to return.

Starting Rotation

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Jacob deGrom
3. Matt Harvey
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Robert Gsellman

It’s beautiful, and I’m not just talking about the hair. Everyone in this rotation–save Matt Harvey in the early goings–looked sharp in spring, and Wheeler looks healthy enough for the team to grant him an early spot in the rotation. Gsellman may already be the third-best starter in this rotation, and I’m a little disappointed he hasn’t slotted into the fourth slot instead of the fifth. Yes, Wheeler certainly has more big league experience and pedigree, but he’s also coming off injury and on an innings cap. The fifth starter gets skipped the first time through the rotation, and it seems like an easy win to push Wheeler’s debut back a week, allowing him to maybe go one week longer into the season.

I think the one thing we can all agree on is that this rotation will look very different come September and–hopefully–October. A perfect world scenario has Syndergaard, deGrom, and Harvey all healthy and ready to shove at the end of the year, but Wheeler’s innings cap and Gsellman’s rookie status may mean that they probably are out of bullets at that time. Steven Matz may be back and consistent by then, but even if he is the fifth starter may well be TBD.

(One likely note here is that the team doesn’t have a lefty starter with Steven Matz opening the season on the DL. I’m not sure it matters, but it sure is a note.)

Bullpen

• Addison Reed
• Fernando Salas
• Jerry Blevins
• Hansel Robles
• Josh Smoker
• Josh Edgin
• Rafael Montero OR Seth Lugo

And here comes the wildly mediocre Mets bullpen! There are lots of definite roles assigned: Reed as the closer until Jeurys Familia returns in late April, Salas and Robles as the primary righty setup men, and Blevins as the first lefty off the pine. Smoker has the potential to be very good and get whiffs, which leaves those last two bullpen slots. Josh Edgin is, quite frankly, a mistake. (#freePaulSewald) However, he’s a vet, the team loves vets, etc. When Familia comes back, I have to imagine he’ll get put on waivers, slide through unclaimed, and return to where he belongs in Las Vegas; the Mets probably don’t need three bullpen lefties anyway.

Then comes the long man, and the last unclaimed spot on the Mets’ roster. Either Lugo or Montero–who finally is starting to come around in Spring Training this year–could end up breaking with the team, and my money is on Montero. I even think this is the best decision. Here’s why: I think that Lugo in the bullpen would provide the best short-term performance if used properly, which is italicized because I don’t think the Mets (read: Terry Collins) are willing to use him properly. As a two-inning high-leverage reliever, Lugo could be a revelation, and as valuable as any non-Miller stopper in baseball. But I don’t buy that Collins is that creative. At the same time, I also think that Lugo is most valuable as a full-on starting pitcher, so keeping him stretched out in that role in Las Vegas is ideal–especially given what I’ve mentioned before about the team ultimately needing a fifth starter late in the season even if everyone stays mostly healthy. I think the team should hold Lugo in reserve as a five-to-six-inning starter for the back half of the season, and let the more fungible Montero be the long dude out of the ‘pen.

… but maybe Montero is good now? I don’t know. Eno Sarris of FanGraphs mentions Montero as one of the spring’s three most improved pitchers based on K-BB change from 2016; of course Spring Training stats are a ridiculous sample, and Montero’s 2016 stats were laughable. Terry Collins has commented that Montero’s old well-regarded command has started come together, and his curveball is getting swings and misses. If his strikeout numbers continue to look good as the season starts, perhaps he could become a more compelling bullpen option than even Salas or Robles. That, plus everything I’ve already said about Lugo, makes me think that he’s the better initial choice for the Opening Day roster, even if Lugo is the superior pitcher. With either guy in play, though, perhaps the Mets’ bullpen could go from average-ish to actually good. Stranger things have happened, but this is a nice microcosm of this 2017 Mets roster: perhaps deeper than expected, with some upside left. Everything depends on health, and some of the regulars aren’t necessarily ideal, but they’re well-poised to compete for the NL pennant.

(But maybe that’s the just the hope of Opening Day talking.)

Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports