Welcome to the drop-from-contention Phillies! Not much has changed with the rosters or statistical breakdown of these two teams since they met ten days ago, but Philadelphia has gone from outside shot to make the playoffs to a mere 2.7% chance according to BP’s projections. They do play the Braves seven times over their last 11 games, so there’s always a possibility, but in all likelihood their playoff hopes have slipped away. With that in mind, this stat preview focuses on some encouraging trends for the future in Philly.
Carlos isn’t Cursed: The signing of Carlos Santana in the offseason was a signal the Phillies were trying to contend. With Cleveland, Santana had become a pretty steady contributor, posting WARP totals between 2.4 and 3.6 in four of his last five seasons with the club. When he came to Philadelphia, though, his production took a nose dive, in large part to an ungodly .206 BABIP in the season’s first half. As a player with less-than-phenomenal speed, his BABIP has always been a little on the lower side, but such a dip had Phillies fans wondering what curse had been bestowed upon him for leaving Cleveland. In the second half, though, his BABIP regressed to normal levels, as these things tend to do, and his production followed. In fact, his season WARP is sitting right in his typical range at 2.4 with two weeks left to play. The rebound is a welcome sight for Philly, which certainly has designs of contending again next year.
Relief Network: Despite a few hiccups that have cost them games down the stretch, the Phillies have a solid basis for a dominant bullpen. In Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Victor Arano and Luis Garcia, Philadelphia has four relievers with K/9 better than 9 and DRAs lower than 3.30 who are under control for at least two more seasons. Add in the guys they spent considerable money on this winter, like Pat Neshek (2.89 FIP, 4.65 K/BB, controlled through 2020) and Tommy Hunter (3.50 FIP, 3.61 K/BB, controlled through 2019), and with some tweaking, the Phillies’ pen could be a huge asset next year.
Philly Payroll: Speaking of the money the Phillies spent last offseason, they have more to spend in the future. If there is any reason to believe the Phillies are the best positioned team in the division in 2019 and beyond, it is their financial fortitude. In 2014, Philadelphia’s payroll was $183 million, third highest in the majors (according to Cot’s). In 2018, their opening day payroll was $95 million. Before arbitration, the team only has $69 million committed to 2019. With a star-studded free agent market, they seem positioned to make a splash if they so choose.
Quick Hits
The Good: Jose Bautista’s TAv with the Phillies is .326.
The Bad: Jorge Alfaro has struck out in 36.7% of his plate appearances.
The Ugly: The Phillies have gone 30-36 against the NL East.
Mets Check-In
The Mets are the only NL team with three pitchers with four or more WARP (the Indians have three as well). deGrom (6.96), Wheeler (4.86) and Syndergaard (4.17) are the three to meet that level of production. The last time New York had three such pitchers was 2015, when deGrom, Syndergaard and Matt Harvey all reached the mark. Such a dominant year on the mound feels wasted considering the results elsewhere on the field, although the development of Wheeler in particular has been encouraging to see at least.
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