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Stat Preview: Washington Nationals, September 20-23

As two teams that drastically underperformed preseason expectations, it seems fitting that the Mets travel to Washington for their final road series. In a way, both of these clubs will be at a crossroads this offseason in determining the future direction of their franchises. Both have won the division and reached the playoffs multiple times in the last four seasons, but an argument could be made that a jump start on a rebuild could benefit both clubs. In the end, it seems likely that both teams will try to contend again next year. The Nationals could potentially lose a lot of talent, though, so this stat preview focuses on those holes and the personnel that could help fill them.

Soto for Harper: Was this season a symbolic passing of the “face of the franchise” torch between two of the game’s most exciting young stars? Juan Soto certainly seemed like the better player at times throughout the season. If this is the end of Bryce Harper’s run in D.C., though, it would leave a taste of disappointment for many Nationals’ fans, as the team never made it passed the first round of the playoffs with one of the greatest players of this generation. Could Soto lead the Nationals to the promised land instead? In Harper’s own teenage rookie campaign, he posted a 5.2 WARP/600 plate appearances with 11 FRAA, 22 home runs and a .270/.340/.477 slash line. Soto lags behind in defense (1.7 FRAA), but his offensive numbers are more impressive, as he has posted a 5.6 WARP/600 plate appearances, 20 home runs (in almost 150 fewer plate appearances) and a .298/.413/.520 slash line. Obviously Harper stepped up his production considerably since then, but Soto has created an incredible foundation to build upon and should help mitigate the potential loss of Harper in the outfield. With another outfield uber-prospect in Victor Robles starting to get his feet wet, the Nationals may decide to let Harper walk.

Difo for Murphy: In some ways, this season offered a preview of what the Wilmer Difo for Daniel Murphy swap would look like. Murphy missed significant time to injury and was then traded to the Cubs in September, allowing Difo to glean plenty of starts at the keystone. Difo has the clear fielding advantage there (10.4 career FRAA to -21.1 career FRAA), but offensively Murphy is worlds better. In almost 130 fewer at bats this year, Murphy has accrued nearly five times as much offense value (2.7 to 12.6 VORP). Difo has not shown much offensive prowess before this year, either, as his career TAv is .242, matching his 2018 number. What this means is the second base hole may need to be filled by someone outside of the current active roster, as Difo seems like a glove first utility infielder based on his play to date.

Gio’s Replacement: Like Murphy, Gio Gonzalez has already been traded away, and it is not clear who will take his place. The lefty leaves quite a void in the Nats’ rotation, as he contributed 22.4 WARP in almost seven seasons with the club. The team has a few internal options, but the most promising hurler to jump in his spot may be Joe Ross. Ross has just returned from Tommy John surgery, so his time spent healthy the last few years has been spotty. In his last season without the UCL injury, he posted a solid 3.43 ERA, 3.52 FIP and 3.98 DRA, which was good for 1.7 WARP in 105 innings. His K/9 and BB/9 that year matched his career averages of 8.0 and 2.5, respectively, which would put him about league average in both categories this season. A league average starter at the back end of Washington’s starting staff would certainly help stabilize their pitching situation. Ross has never thrown more major league innings than the 105 in 2016, though, and with another potential free agent departure in Jeremy Hellickson, the Nats will probably look to sign pitching help this winter.

Quick Hits

The Good: Despite no longer leading rookies in VORP, Soto still leads rookie batters in WARP with 4.24.

The Bad: Another 2019 starting candidate, Jefry Rodriguez has walked 15.2% of the batters he has faced in 49 innings.

The Ugly: The Nationals’ expected record based on run differential is eight games better than their current record. They would be in playoff position if that were the case.

Mets Check-In

The Mets are 13-26 in one-run games. The only two teams worse than that are in last place in their respective divisions. One of them may lose 115 games. The other was nine games out of first place 18 days into the season. They are the Orioles and the Reds. It is pretty safe to say the season has been a disappointment if your team is in any group with the 2018 Orioles and Reds.

Photo credit: Adam Hagy – USA Today Sports

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