As Baseball Prospectus co-founder and current Newsletter/Sports Illustrated writer Joe Sheehan says, there’s little point in analyzing a baseball season until you’ve seen 40 games. At that point in the 2016 season, Mets fans would have cried to learn they’d be 1.5 games behind the tanking Phillies. Yet, four games above .500 and only 2.5 games out of first place is a decent place to be on May 20.
After 40 games, BP’s Playoff Odds put the Mets at 75.5% to make the postseason. That’s a better chance than was given to any National League team except the Cubs and Nationals. And believe it or not, that’s actually up from PECOTA’s preseason projection, which gave the Mets 74.6% playoff odds. Have we learned anything from those 0.9 percentage points? Let us explain… — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)
The Pitching Can Survive The Dreadful Defense
Last season, Dan Warthen’s staff threw a record number of 95+ mph fastballs, the Mets gave up the third-fewest hits in the NL, and a whole bunch of pitches missed a whole bunch of bats, all way into late October. And while the defense was decent last season, all indications pointed to a huge drop-off for 2016. So the question for me was whether the rotation’s overpowering offerings would offset the Mets’ shortcomings in the field.
So far, so good. Even though the Mets rank 12th in the NL in Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they have the best FIP in the NL by a pretty significant margin. Sure, the Mets have committed the second-fewest errors in the NL. But that’s more a product of having the fewest defensive chances of any team. Thus far, the pitchers have done their job on the mound, keeping the Mets within striking distance of the Nationals and limiting the damage that a clearly subpar defense can do in the field. The trick now will be maintaining that arrangement (again) all the way into October. — Erik Malinowski (@erikmal)
The Bullpen is Legit
After years of futility and nail-biting, the Mets finally have a bullpen worthy of a contending team. Nearly two months into the season, the team leads all relief staffs in ERA and FIP, and they’re 4th in K/BB. What’s more, it’s a complete team effort, getting strong performances up and down the roster. Setting aside Rafael Montero (please set aside Rafael Montero), at press time not one of the relievers had an ERA over 3.21 and they are currently on a 14 2/3 scoreless inning streak. Long relief, close games, mop up duty, they do it all and they do it well. Addison Reed has been particularly dominant, with a 6.25 K/BB to match his shiny 2.37 ERA. It’s strange feeling something other than dread when a reliever comes into a game, but here we are. And given the erratic nature of bullpens, we should be enjoying every minute of this — I think Frank Francisco may be warming up as we speak. — Maggie Wiggin (@maggie162)
David Wright Can’t Throw
Let’s hope Erik and Maggie are right that the Mets’ pitchers are as good as we think. Because all indications are that the third baseman cannot throw. In the fourth inning of Thursday’s blowout loss to the Nationals. Logan Verrett had relieved the ineffective Matt Harvey. Bryce Harper battled for 13 pitches before flying out to left. Future Met Villain Danny Murphy doubled, Ryan Zimmerman walked, and Anthony Rendon blooped one over second to load the bases with one out.
That brought up Wilson Ramos, a catcher with the second-lowest baserunning score on the Nationals. In six MLB seasons, Ramos has stolen… zero bases. Ramos is so slow that when he runs somewhere, the stadium P.A. plays the theme from “Chariots of Fire.” Bengie Molina thinks Ramos is slow.
On Verrett’s third pitch, Ramos hit a sharp groundball to David Wright, who fielded it cleanly. A healthy third baseman either whips the ball to second for the 5-4-3 twin killing, or he takes two steps to his right, touches third and throws to first for the 5-5-3 double play. Instead, Wright took his time, crow-hopped, and tossed the ball to Kevin Plawecki for the force at home.
Wright didn’t even think about turning two on a tailor-made double-play ball hit by the opponent’s catcher. This is an indictment of his shoulder or his spinal stenosis or his entire kinetic chain. We who hoped that an offseason of rest and strengthening work would dispel the memory of Wright’s sidearm throw to Lucas Duda (allowing Eric Hosmer to score from third) in Game 5 of the World Series must now face the reality that Wright is no longer a big-league third baseman. — Scott D. Simon (@scottdsimon)
Yoenis Cespedes’s Second Half of 2015 may be his New Level
When the Mets finally decided to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes to a three-year, $75 million contract, the fanbase was excited but cautious. Although he hit 17 homers in just 57 Mets games, most expected him to revert to the steady .269/.317/.473 bat he was over the previous three and a half years. That was okay, but would that really be worth $75 million?
Incredibly, Cespedes has begun 2016 at an even hotter pace than his 2015 second half. He led the National League in slugging percentage entering Saturday thanks to 13 homers and a .291/.375/.642 triple-slash. His .364 True Average is higher than than the .334 he posted last year in Queens. This extreme pace probably won’t continue, but it is inspiring. Many people thought Cespedes would be hard pressed to match his .334 TAv with the 2015 Mets. Now, Yo could even regress to that figure and have it be an awesome season.
If that happens, then the only worry Mets fans might have is that he opts out. Until that possibility looms larger, enjoy the dingers. — Andrew Mearns (@MearnsPSA)
The Mets Can’t Hit Ace-Level Pitching
It seems tautological: to advance to the World Series, you have to defeat the best pitchers your league has to offer. Last year, in beating Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Jake Arrieta, all Cy Young recipients, the Mets did just that. This year, however, the bats have been silenced versus the playoff-bound elite. The offense has totaled four runs in games against Madison Bumgarner, Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg, well under their 3.88 per game average coming into Saturday’s game. If the Mets are to make a run as deep as last year’s, they’re going to have to reverse what we’ve learned this first quarter and start giving the pitching staff the run support they deserve against the pitchers who will matter most in October. — Brian Duricy (@briansusername_)
Citi Field has Momofuku Milk Bar Cookies
Jarrett and I have talked a lot about what we’ve learned so far this season in the first three episodes of our podcast, but it wasn’t until my first 2016 trip to Flushing last week that I discovered this little crumb of information. Citi Field has always been a bit of a foodie haven as baseball stadiums go, but we’ve been limited to the usual array of frozen treats and fried dough for an 8th-inning repast after wolfing down some trendy chef fare. When my wife was living in the city, picking up a half dozen Milk Bar cookies was always on my list of errands when I was down to visit. It was a pleasant surprise to see them at the stadium now. Also doesn’t hurt that it is probably still easier to get than Shake Shack. — Jeffrey Paternostro (@jeffpaternostro)
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports